Jul, 26 2025
If you’re eyeing PrizePicks markets for tennis fixtures on December 10, you’ll notice two prop types keep popping up: Total Games and Aces. There’s a method to beating both, and it’s less about luck, more about strategy and understanding player matchups.
You know those matches where a top seed like Aryna Sabalenka faces an unseeded rival and the odds are lopsided? These are perfect for the Total Games market, especially for those “Under” bets. When favorites win fast and hard, the matches rarely go the distance. Straight-set wins dominate, and set scores like 6-2 or 6-3 are common. Two sets at those rates put you right around 16 to 18 total games, well under the lines PrizePicks usually sets for more balanced matches. Bookmakers and prop lines often adjust, but when the talent gap is obvious, the edge stays on your side.
How do you spot these situations ahead of time? Start by checking pre-match odds and recent performances. If a player’s been crushing opponents, especially on their preferred surface, there’s a solid chance they’ll keep matches short. Pay attention to tournament context, too. Early rounds see more mismatches than quarters or finals.
Aces come down to power and surface speed—but also the mindset of the player returning serve. Some players, both men and women, are notorious for stacking aces, especially if they have height and a cannon for a serve. Watch out for clashes where a top server faces a returner with low break-point conversion rates or a history of struggling against the serve.
Here’s what you look for to nail the Over on Aces:
If the matchup features both a big server and a returner who typically struggles, you can expect the aces to pile up—especially if the set goes to a tiebreak. And if you’re really digging for value, scan recent head-to-head records. Sometimes, a player’s delivery just can’t be read by certain types of opponents, leading to ace bonanzas that don’t always show in average stats.
Finally, while you may not have a catalog of every match on the slate, use what’s out there: odds, injury updates, and even weather (for tournaments with outdoor play). Pulling together these pieces can shift the edge in your favor—just like the pros do when analyzing value in everyday betting markets.
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